基于改进物元可拓模型的一体化营配调综合风险评估
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1.国网天津市电力公司;2.国家电网有限公司;3.国网上海能源互联网研究院

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国家电网有限公司总部科技项目“营配调信息模型边界建模及其一致性检测技术研究”(No. SGTJDK00DWJS1900100)。


Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of Operation and distribution Based on Improved Matter Element Extension Model
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Affiliation:

1.State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin;2.State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing;3.State Grid Shanghai Energy Interconnection Research Institute,Shanghai

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    摘要:

    营配调一体化能够实现营销、生产、调度等多层次工作的有效集中,但与此同时在营配调一体化情形下供电系统面临的综合风险也会随之增加。为提升系统的综合风险预警能力,提出了一种新的营配调一体化风险评估模型。首先根据营配调一体化系统的特点构建了供电风险评价指标体系,并提出了一种以AHP和DEA为辅助模型的指标赋权方法,以降低传统物元可拓模型赋权过程中由于人为因素造成的主观误差;其次通过构造供电综合风险物元、划定供电风险评级,建立了营配调一体化的综合风险评估模型。最后以某地区为例分析了其供电风险情况和影响因素,验证了该营配调综合风险评估模型的科学实用性。

    Abstract:

    The integration of operation and distribution can realize the effective concentration of multi-level work, such as marketing, production and dispatching. However, the comprehensive risks of the power supply system will be increase too. Therefore, a new risk assessment model of operation and deployment is proposed in order to enhance the comprehensive risk early warning capability of the system. Firstly, according to the characteristics of the integrated system of operation and distribution, a power supply risk evaluation index system was constructed. Secondly, an index weighting method was proposed based on AHP and DEA. It can effectively reduce the subjective error that caused by human factors in the traditional matter-element extension model weighting process. By constructing a comprehensive risk element for power supply and delineating a power supply risk rating, a comprehensive risk assessment model with integrated operation and distribution was established. Finally, this paper takes an area as an example to calculate and analyze its power supply risk and influencing factors and verify the scientificity and practicality of the risk assessment model.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-04
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-21
  • 录用日期:2020-12-23
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