1.State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin;2.State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing;3.State Grid Shanghai Energy Interconnection Research Institute,Shanghai
The integration of operation and distribution can realize the effective concentration of multi-level work, such as marketing, production and dispatching. However, the comprehensive risks of the power supply system will be increase too. Therefore, a new risk assessment model of operation and deployment is proposed in order to enhance the comprehensive risk early warning capability of the system. Firstly, according to the characteristics of the integrated system of operation and distribution, a power supply risk evaluation index system was constructed. Secondly, an index weighting method was proposed based on AHP and DEA. It can effectively reduce the subjective error that caused by human factors in the traditional matter-element extension model weighting process. By constructing a comprehensive risk element for power supply and delineating a power supply risk rating, a comprehensive risk assessment model with integrated operation and distribution was established. Finally, this paper takes an area as an example to calculate and analyze its power supply risk and influencing factors and verify the scientificity and practicality of the risk assessment model.