清洁能源发展场景下电动汽车入网对区域碳排放轨迹的系统动力学建模与分析
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作者单位:

1.四川大学电气工程学院;2.国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院

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TM863???

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国家电网公司科技项目,多目标动态平衡的电网投资规划技术与价值衍生评估研究


System dynamics modeling and analysis of regional carbon emission by electric vehicles development under the evolution of clean energy development
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1.College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University;2.Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd

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    摘要:

    在“碳达峰、碳中和”发展背景下,电动汽车的推广为实现低碳化目标提供了有力的支撑。本文首先分析了电动汽车规模、区域能源构成及车网互动技术与碳排放之间的耦合关系;其次根据清洁能源发展规律构建了区域能源发展路径;最后基于系统动力学原理建立能源清洁化发展下,电动汽车入网对区域碳排放轨迹演化的动力学反馈模型。本文以我国西南某城市的数据为例进行动力学演化仿真,其中以电动汽车的发展规模及清洁能源的发展路径为主要变量,分析了多种场景下电动汽车入网对区域碳排放的影响。本文还通过灵敏度试验验证了电动汽车入网具有一定的碳减排效益。上述仿真结果表明,清洁能源的发展对碳减排的影响最显著,且电动汽车车网互动技术具有巨大的碳减排效益。

    Abstract:

    In the context of development of Carbon peak and Carbon neutral, the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) provides a strong support for the realization of low-carbon goals. Firstly, this paper analyzes the coupling relationship between the scale of EVs, regional energy composition, Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology and carbon emissions. Secondly, the district energy development path is constructed according to the development law of clean energy. Finally, based on the principle of system dynamics, a dynamic feedback model of the evolution of regional carbon emission trajectory due to the entry of V2G under the development of clean energy is established. This paper takes the data of a city in southwest China as an example to conduct dynamic evolution simulation, in which the development scale of EVs and the development path of clean energy are taken as the main variables to analyze the impact of EVs on regional carbon emissions under various scenarios. This paper also verifies the carbon emission reduction benefit of electric vehicles through sensitivity test. The above simulation results indicate that the development of clean energy has the most significant impact on carbon emission reduction, and V2G technology has huge benefits of carbon emission reduction.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-07
  • 最后修改日期:2021-06-08
  • 录用日期:2021-06-18
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