基于全连接时空图的短期电力负荷预测方法
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(1.长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南 长沙 410114;2.长沙理工大学国际工学院,湖南 长沙 410114)

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通讯作者:

龙 卓(1989—),男,博士,讲师,主要从事电力系统及电气设备测试、诊断、预测与健康管理等研究;E?mail:longzhuo601@csust.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TM743

基金项目:

湖南省教育厅一般项目(22C0138);长沙理工大学研究生科研创新项目(CLSJCX23064)


Short‑term power load forecast method based on fully‑connected spatio‑temporal graph
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(1.School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China;2. International Institute of Technology, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

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    摘要:

    短期负荷预测是电力系统中的一项重要任务。目前,对多序列负荷之间的时空邻接关系的研究较少,而一定情况下考虑这种时空邻接性可以提高预测的准确性。为此,提出一种基于全连接图的图卷积神经网络(fully?connected graph based graph convolution neural network,FCGCN)。首先,FCGCN将多序列负荷数据编码成图的节点特征矩阵,结合位置编码的方法增加负荷数据的顺序信息,并利用动态时间规整(dynamic time warping,DTW)算法构建图的邻接矩阵,从而形成负荷数据的全连接时空图;然后,结合滑动窗口算法思想,将构建的全连接图连续分割为一系列子图,再利用图卷积神经网络(graph convolution neural network,GCN)对每个子图单独进行特征提取;其次,为了实现对多源负荷数据的多角度特征提取,FCGCN采用多分支并行结构,将每个分支提取的特征向量串联,并通过全连接层完成对不同负荷的预测;最后,利用来自某生产基地的实际负荷数据进行验证实验。结果表明:与常见的预测模型相比,FCGCN能取得更高的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Short-term load forecast is an important task in power systems. However, existing studies have overlooked the spatio-temporal adjacency between multi-sequence loads. In some cases, considering this spatio-temporal adjacency can improve the prediction accuracy. To address this problem, a fully?connected graph-based graph convolutional neural network (FCGCN) is proposed. The network first encodes the multi-sequence load data into the node feature matrix of the graph, which is combined with the method of position encoding to increase the order information of the load data. The adjacency matrix of the graph is built by using the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm, thus forming a fully-connected spatio-temporal graph of the load data. Then, combined with the sliding window algorithm concept, the constructed fully-connected graph is divided into a series of subgraphs, and then feature extraction is accomplished for each subgraph individually using the graph convolutional neural network (GCN). Besides, in order to realize multi-perspective feature extraction on multi-source load data, FCGCN adopts a multi-branch parallel structure. The feature vectors extracted from each branch are concatenated, and different loads are predicted through a fully-connected layer. Finally, validation experiments using actual load data from a manufacturing base show that FCGCN can achieve higher prediction accuracy compared to common prediction models.

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徐智远,缪卓窈,龙 卓,等.基于全连接时空图的短期电力负荷预测方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,40(3):123-132.
XU Zhiyuan, MIAO Zhuoyao, LONG Zhuo, et al. Short‑term power load forecast method based on fully‑connected spatio‑temporal graph[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,40(3):123-132.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-29
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