基于状态迭代的配用电业务计算资源需求预测与动态均衡方法
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(1.南方电网数字电网研究院 ,广东 广州 510670;2.华南理工大学电力学院 ,广东 广州 510700)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

李晓华(1975—),女,博士,教授,主要从事高压直流输电、电力物联网等方面的研究;E-mail:eplxh@scut.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TM734

基金项目:

南方电网公司科技项目(670000KK52220001);国家重点研发计划(2023YFB4204400)


Method of demand forecasting and dynamic equilibrium of computing resources for grid distribution and consumption tasks based on state iteration
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(1.Digital Grid Research Institute , China Southen Power Grid , Guangzhou 510670, China; 2.School of Electric Power Engineering , South China University of Technology , Guangzhou 510700, China)

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    摘要:

    当前,海量接入的配网侧分布式对象导致配用电终端所承载的业务呈现时间尺度的多样性与需求差异大等复杂特征,导致计算需求随机波动的复杂均衡问题。传统终端受限于固化的应用场景与相对确定的资源配置,仅能通过 “以量换质 ”的方案来被动适应,无法从根源解决配用电终端计算资源供需不平衡这一持久性矛盾。对此,提出基于状态迭代的配用电业务计算资源需求预测与动态均衡方法。先对分析配用电业务场景属性及其业务特征,建立业务计算资源需求模型;再采用传统马尔可夫模型,预测其短期有效性;然后,利用状态一阶差分方程训练数据并跟踪状态波动情况,通过历史状态和预测状态进行状态迭代,避免长期预测的趋同性;最后,根据周期业务与非周期业务不同的时间尺度特性建立动态均衡模型,通过错峰平移与差异化调节达到计算资源需求不平衡度的最优配置。研究结果表明:基于一阶差分与状态迭代的改进马尔可夫模型兼具传统模型的短期准确性与数据波动的长期可跟踪性;业务动态均衡模型能有效降低计算资源需求的不平衡度,具备良好的资源不平衡度偏移应对能力。

    Abstract:

    Distributed objects on the distribution side of the network are currently massively assessed so that the tasks carried by the grid distribution and consumption terminal present the characteristics of multiple time scales and large differences in demand,which leads to the complex equilibrium problem of random fluctuation in the computing resource demand.Traditional terminals are limited by the fixed application scenarios and relatively certain resource allocation,and the terminals can only adapt passively through the “quantity for quality ” method,which is unable to solve the persistent contradiction of imbalance between the supply and demand of computing resources in terminals from the root.Therefore,a method of demand forecasting and dynamic equilibrium of computing resources for grid distribution and consumption tasks based on state iteration is proposed.Firstly,the task computing resource demand model is established based on the analysis of scenario attributes and characteristics of grid distribution and consumption tasks.Secondly,the short-term effectiveness forecasting is predicted by the traditional Markov model.Then,the first-order difference equations of the state are used to train the data and track the state fluctuation.The historical state and the forecasted state are used for state iteration to avoid the convergence of long-term forecasting.Finally,a dynamic equilibrium model is established according to the time-scale features of cyclical and non-cyclical tasks.The optimal configuration of the imbalance in computing resource requirements is achieved by shifting staggered peaks and adjusting differentiation.The results have shown that the improved Markov model based on first-order difference and state iteration has the short-term accuracy of the traditional model and the long-term traceability of data fluctuations.The dynamic equilibrium model can effectively reduce the imbalance of resource demand for computing resources and show good ability to cope with resource imbalance deviation.

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引用本文

蔡田田,陈军健,胡明,等.基于状态迭代的配用电业务计算资源需求预测与动态均衡方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,(4):81-91.
CAI Tiantian, CHEN Junjian, HU Ming, et al. Method of demand forecasting and dynamic equilibrium of computing resources for grid distribution and consumption tasks based on state iteration[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,(4):81-91.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-27
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