电碳耦合市场中多主体竞价随机延迟演化博弈及应用
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(1.辽宁工程技术大学电气与控制工程学院 ,辽宁 葫芦岛 125000;2.辽宁工程技术大学应用技术与经济管理学院 ,辽宁 阜新 123000;3.中国电建集团山东电力建设第一工程有限公司 ,山东 济南 250000)

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通讯作者:

赫飞(1978—),男,博士,副教授,主要从事新能源电力系统运行规划方面的研究;E-mail:1059983882@qq.com

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TM73

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52104160)


Market stochastic delay evolutionary game of multi -agent bidding and its application in electrocarbon coupling market
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(1. School of Electrical and Control Engineering , Liaoning Technical University , Huludao 125000, China; 2. School of Applied Technology and Economics Management , Liaoning Technical University , Fuxin 123000, China; 3. Power China SEPCO 1 Electric Power Construction Co ., Ltd., Jinan 250000, China)

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    摘要:

    随着碳排放权交易对推进电力系统低碳经济转型愈发重要,电碳市场中新能源发电商、化石能源发电商和社区聚合商之间的竞价策略出现显著变化。针对市场中不同主体竞价行为表现出的随机波动以及碳配额产生的效益等存在滞后的情况,通过建立随机延迟微分方程 (stochastic delay differential equation,SDDE)模型,引入高斯白噪声和时滞项,对3类不同企业间的竞价过程进行动态演化仿真,并探讨滞后时间阈值的变化规律以及干扰强度和滞后时间等参数变化对策略选择产生的影响。在此基础上,基于三方主体之间的供需关系,设置不同类型的柔性负荷,并通过 SDDE方程模拟在电碳市场中供给侧的分时电价策略与需求侧的柔性负荷策略之间的演化博弈过程,证明在纳什均衡过程中对各方主体利益产生的影响以及实现削峰填谷的有效性。

    Abstract:

    As carbon emission trading becomes more and more important to promote the transition to a low-carbon economy in the electric power system,the bidding strategy among new energy producers,fossil energy producers,and community aggregators in the electrocarbon market has changed significantly.In view of the stochastic fluctuations shown by bidding behaviors of different agents in the market and the lagging benefits generated by carbon quotas,a stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE) model is established.Gaussian white noise and time-delay terms are introduced to simulate the dynamic evolution of the bidding process between three different firms,and the change law of the lag time threshold and the influence of the change of interference intensity and lag time on the strategy selection are discussed.Based on the supply and demand relationship between the three agents,different types of flexible loads are set up and the evolutionary game process between the supply-side time-of-use pricing strategy and the demand-side flexible load strategy in the electrocarbon market is simulated by SDDE,which proves the influence on the interests of each agent in the process of achieving Nash equilibrium and the effectiveness of peak cutting and valley filling.

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张帅博,赫飞,宗德敬.电碳耦合市场中多主体竞价随机延迟演化博弈及应用[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,(4):121-133.
ZHANG Shuaibo, HE Fei, ZONG Dejing. Market stochastic delay evolutionary game of multi -agent bidding and its application in electrocarbon coupling market[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,(4):121-133.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-27
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