基于互信息耦合DBO -BiLSTM -Attention的风光协同发电功率预测模型
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(华北电力大学经济与管理学院 ,北京 102206)

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通讯作者:

刘吉成(1963—),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事电力运营与信息管理、能源互联网理论与应用方面的研究;E-mail:ljc29@163.com

中图分类号:

TM615

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(71771085)


Forecasting model of wind -photovoltaic synergy power based on mutual information coupling DBO -BiLSTM -Attention
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(School of Economics and Management , North China Electric Power University , Beijing 102206, China)

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    摘要:

    风、光协同发电是新型电力系统耦合发展的趋 势,然而两者发电受环境波动波动影响较大,对系统整体功率的预测精度产生影响。通过探索创新方法模型对风光协同发电功率进行预测分析,以期获得更加精准的预测结果。首先,分析风光协同发电系统结构及其协同发电模式;其次,通过互信息耦合方法探讨风电和光伏功率影响因素之间的关联关系;再次,构建 DBO-BiLSTM-Attention 组合模型,为风力和光伏协同发电功率预测奠定基础;最后,结合算例分别进行情景分析、方法对比分析和灵敏度分析,验证模型的有效性和合理性。研究表明,所提模型具有良好的性能,能够为风、光协同发电功率高效而精准的预测提供有价值的参考。

    Abstract:

    Wind-photovoltaic synergy power is the trend in the development of new electric power systems.However,both electricity generation fluctuates greatly with the environment,which exerts an impact on the forecasting accuracy for the whole system power.This paper explores an innovative model to analyze and forecast the wind-photovoltaic synergy power for the purpose of a more accurate forecasting result.Firstly,the structure of the wind-photovoltaic synergy power system and the synergy power model of wind power and photovoltaic power are analyzed.Secondly,the relationship between the influence factors of wind power and photovoltaic power is discussed using the mutual information coupling method.Thirdly,the DBO-BiLSTM-Attention model is constructed to lay the foundation for forecasting the wind-photovoltaic synergy power.Finally,the scenario analysis,method comparison analysis,and the sensitivity analysis are conducted to verify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model.The results show that the proposed model has good performance and can provide a valuable reference for forecasting wind-photovoltaic synergy power effectively and accurately.

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引用本文

李颖欢,刘吉成,卢运媛,等.基于互信息耦合DBO -BiLSTM -Attention的风光协同发电功率预测模型[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,(4):134-149.
LI Yinghuan, LIU Ji cheng, LU Yunyuan, et al. Forecasting model of wind -photovoltaic synergy power based on mutual information coupling DBO -BiLSTM -Attention[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,(4):134-149.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-27
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