低压光伏潮流倒送对电缆寿命的影响研究
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(1.华北电力大学 (保定) ,河北 保定 071003;2.新能源电力系统全国重点实验室 (华北电力大学 ) ,河北 保定 071003;3.西安博展电力技术有限公司 ,陕西 西安 710000;4.北京国网互联电气技术有限公司 ,北京 100000)

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通讯作者:

李岩(1985—),男,博士,副教授,主要从事电气设备故障诊断等方面的研究;E-mail:yan.li@ncepu.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TM726.2

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年基金(52007065);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(20226932)


Research on effect of low -voltage photovoltaic power flow reversal on cable life expectancy
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(1.North China Electric Power University (Baoding) , Baoding 071003, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University ) , Baoding 071003, China; 3. Xi'an Bozhan Power Technology Co., Ltd., Xi'an 710000, China; 4. State Grid Beijing Interconnection Electric Technology Co ., Ltd., Beijing 100000, China)

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    摘要:

    随着分布式光伏渗透率的提高,潮流可能倒送至电网侧,给低压光伏电缆带来新的老化挑战。针对光伏潮流倒送情况下的电缆老化问题研究不足,提出一种针对低压光伏潮流倒送场景的电缆寿命估计方法。首先,根据基尔霍夫电流定律计算不同梯度下电缆的电流分布,并利用有限元仿真软件对其进行温度场分析。其次,运用Arrhenius 寿命模型评估电缆在不同工况下的预期寿命、老化速度和寿命损失。最后,通过蒙特卡洛模拟对电缆的温度和寿命两方面进行不确定性分析。研究结果显示,在光伏潮流倒送场景下,电缆绝缘平均温度普遍高于正常工况温度,且有 52.93%的概率会高于 80 ℃的额定工作温度。电缆寿命普遍低于正常工况温度的寿命,且有 53.78%的概率会小于额定工作温度下的寿命。

    Abstract:

    With the increase in the penetration rate of distributed photovoltaic power,the power flow may be sent back to the grid side,posing new aging challenges to low-voltage (LV) photovoltaic cables.In view of the insufficient research on cable aging under the photovoltaic power flow reversal,a cable life estimation method for the LV photovoltaic power flow reversal scenario is proposed.Firstly,based on Kirchhoff ’s current law,the current distribution of the cable under different gradients is calculated,and the temperature field of the cable is analyzed using finite element simulation software.Secondly,the Arrhenius lifetime model is used to evaluate the expected lifetime,aging rate,and lifetime loss of the cable under different operating conditions.Finally,uncertainty analysis of the temperature and lifetime of the cable is conducted through a Monte Carlo simulation.The research results show that in the scenario of photovoltaic power flow reversal,the average insulation temperature of the cable is generally higher than the normal operating temperature,and there is a 52.93% probability that it will be higher than the rated working temperature of 80 ℃.The cable lifetime is generally lower than the normal operating temperature,and there is a 53.78% probability that it will be shorter than the lifetime under the rated working temperature.

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李岩,赵文乾,刘云鹏,等.低压光伏潮流倒送对电缆寿命的影响研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,(4):305-312.
LI Yan, ZHAO Wenqian, LIU Yunpeng, et al. Research on effect of low -voltage photovoltaic power flow reversal on cable life expectancy[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,(4):305-312.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-27
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