耦合WRF -Solar及辐照度订正的光伏短期预测模型
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(1.国投电力控股股份有限公司 ,北京 100032;2.华北电力大学资源环境系统优化教育部重点实验室 ,北京 102200)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

李薇(1974—),女,博士,教授,主要从事新能源出力预测、综合能源系统优化研究;E-mail:925657837@qq.com

中图分类号:

TK519

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(62203171);中央高校基金(2021MS039)


Short -term prediction model for PV coupled with WRF -Solar and irradiance correction
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Affiliation:

(1. SDIC Power Holdings Co ., Ltd., Beijing 100032, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental System Optimization , Ministry of Education , North China Electric Power University , Beijing 102200, China)

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    摘要:

    随着传统化石能源面临枯竭的问题日益加剧,使用太阳能进行光伏发电成为世界各国能源结构调整的重要方向,如何进一步提高光伏发电功率的预测精度成为亟待解决的问题。为提高光伏功率短期预测的准确性和可靠性,提出一种耦合太阳辐射预报模式系统 (weather research and forecasting model for solar energy,WRF-Solar )及辐照度订正的光伏短期预测模型,先使用 WRF-Solar 进行动力降尺度天气数值预报,得到包含辐照度等在内的未来气象因子,再利用随机森林对预报辐照度进行订正,在此基础上运用长短期神经网络、反向传播神经网络和逐步聚类分析建立光伏功率短期预测模型,利用某 40 MW光伏电站的实际运行数据进行模型对比分析。结果表明,使用随机森林模型订正后的辐照度更接近真实值,平均绝对误差率下降了 56.06个百分点;与另外 2种模型预测结果对比发现,长短期神经网络模型预测效果最好,平均绝对百分比误差降低了 4.13个百分点,说明组合模型能够进一步提高功率预测的精度。

    Abstract:

    As the depletion of traditional fossil energy becomes more serious,the use of solar energy for photovoltaic power generation has been an important direction for global countries to adjust their energy structure.There is an urgent need to improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation capacity.A short-term prediction model for photovoltaics (PV) coupled with a weather research and forecasting model for solar energy (WRF-Solar ) and irradiance correction is proposed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of short-term prediction of photovoltaic power.Firstly,WRF-Solar is used for numerical prediction of dynamic downscaling weather to obtain future meteorological factors,including irradiance.Then,a random forest (RF) is used to correct the predicted irradiance.On this basis,long-term and short-term neural networks,backpropagation neural networks,and stepwise cluster analysis are employed to establish a short-term prediction model for photovoltaic power.Finally,the actual operation data of a 40 MW photovoltaic power station is used to compare the models.The results show that the irradiance corrected by the RF model is closer to the real value,and the average absolute error rate is reduced by 56.06 percentage points.Compared with the prediction results of the other two models,the model of long-term and short-term neural networks demonstrates the best prediction effect,and the meaan absolute percentage error is increased by 4.13 percentage points,indicating that the combined model can further improve the accuracy of power prediction.

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李斌,丁一,包哲,等.耦合WRF -Solar及辐照度订正的光伏短期预测模型[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,40(5):110-118.
LI Bin, DING Yi, BAO Zhe, et al. Short -term prediction model for PV coupled with WRF -Solar and irradiance correction[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,40(5):110-118.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-18
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