基于时变Copula函数的分布式光伏接入配电网薄弱点辨识及风险评估
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(1.华南理工大学电力学院 ,广东 广州 510641;2.长沙理工大学能源与动力工程学院 ,湖南 长沙 410114;3.长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院 ,湖南 长沙 410114)

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颜勤(1988—),女,博士,副教授,主要从事电动汽车及新能源接入电力系统运行优化等方面的研究;E-mail:qin.yan@csust.edu.cn

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TM73

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52307080);湖南省自然科学基金(2024JJ6057);湖南省科技创新计划资助项目(2024RC3175)


Weak point identification and risk assessment of distributed photovoltaic access to distribution network based on time -varying Copula function
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(1. School of Electric Power Engineering , South China University of Technology , Guangzhou 510641, China; 2. College of Energy and Power Engineering , Changsha University of Science & Technology , Changsha 410114, China; 3. School of Electrical & Information Engineering , Changsha University of Science & Technology , Changsha 410114, China)

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    摘要:

    随着分布式光伏不断发展,配电网电压越限风险与电能质量劣化问题愈发严重。为此,提出一种基于时变Copula函数的分布式光伏接入配电网薄弱点辨识方法,并对其进行风险评估。该法通过分析分布式光伏输出的相关性来识别电力系统元件状态的薄弱性,提升配电网的可靠性。先基于时变 Gaussian Copula 函数分析分布式光伏出力相关性,实现复杂函数采样,精确描述分布式光伏相关性;再采用 Newton-Raphson 潮流计算方法的线性化模型,将复杂的非线性化问题简化求解;然后,提出一种基于重复潮流计算的量化方法来评估系统的可靠性,并结合效用理论来识别元件的薄弱环节;最后,通过改进的 IEEE 33节点系统对所提方法进行仿真试验。研究结果表明,所提方法可提高分布式光伏出力的精度,定量分析不同分布式光伏比例对电力系统运行风险的影响。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous development of distributed photovoltaic (PV),the risk of voltage limit violation and the problem of power quality degradation in the distribution network are becoming increasingly serious.Therefore,a method of weak point identification for distributed PV access to the distribution network based on the time-varying Copula function is proposed,and risk assessment is performed on it.The correlation of distributed PV output is analyzed to identify vulnerabilities in power system component states,and the distribution network reliability is enhanced.First,a time-varying Gaussian Copula function is employed to analyze the force output correlation of distributed PV,achieving complex function sampling and accurately describing the distributed PV correlation.Subsequently,a linearized model derived from the Newton Raphson power flow calculation method is adopted to simplify and solve the complicated nonlinearized problems.Furthermore,a quantitative method based on repeated power flow calculation is proposed for evaluating the reliability of the system,and the utility theory is used for identifying the weak links of components.Finally,simulation experiments are conducted on the proposed method by means of the modified IEEE 33 node system.The results demonstrate that the accuracy of distributed PV output can be improved by the proposed method.Additionally,a quantitative analysis is conducted on the effects of different distributed PV penetration ratios on the operational risks of the power system.

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叶欢欢,曾林俊,颜勤.基于时变Copula函数的分布式光伏接入配电网薄弱点辨识及风险评估[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,40(6):101-108.
YE Huanhuan, ZENG Linjun, YAN Qin. Weak point identification and risk assessment of distributed photovoltaic access to distribution network based on time -varying Copula function[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,40(6):101-108.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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