基于聚类和RIME -LightGBM的光热电站太阳直接法向辐射预测
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(1.长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院 ,湖南 长沙 410114;2.长沙理工大学数学与统计学院 ,湖南 长沙 410114)

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通讯作者:

周育才(1971—),男,博士,副教授,主要从事智能识别与控制等方面的研究;E-mail:zyucai@163.com

中图分类号:

TM863

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(62373067);长春晟德科技有限公司科技项目(3040402-2483)


Prediction of direct normal irradiance from photovoltaic power plants based on clustering and RIME -LightGBM
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(1. School of Electrical & Information Engineering , Changsha University of Science & Technology , Changsha 410114, China; 2. School of Mathematics and Statistics , Changsha University of Science & Technology , Changsha 410114, China)

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    摘要:

    太阳直接法向辐射的间歇性与不确定性会影响光热电站电力输出的稳定性。针对该问题,提出一种基于聚类、霜冰优化算法 (rime optimization algorithm,RIME)与优化轻梯度提升机 ( light gradient boosting machine,LightGBM )的光热电站太阳直接法向辐射预测模型。先通过皮尔逊相关系数筛选太阳直接法向辐射的强相关气象参数,并采用小批量 K均值(mini batch K-means,MBK)聚类算法对历史气象数据进行分类;再利用 RIME对LightGBM 超参数寻优,建立不同类别历史气象数据的太阳直接法向辐射预测模型;然后,以预测日每小时与各聚类中心强相关气象参数数据的欧式距离为依据,选择相应预测模型,对太阳直接法向辐射进行预测;最后,采用美国加州某地光热电站 2000—2019年的历史气象数据,对所提模型进行验证。研究结果表明:所提预测模型能较准确地预测太阳直接法向辐射的数值及变化趋势。

    Abstract:

    The stability of the power output of the photovoltaic power plants is affected by the intermittency and uncertainty of direct normal irradiance (DNI).In order to solve this problem,a prediction model of DNI based on the clustering and rime optimization algorithm (RIME) optimizing the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM ) is proposed.Firstly,the strongly correlated meteorological parameters of the DNI are determined by the Pearson correlation coefficient,and the historical meteorological data is classified by the mini batch K-means (MBK) clustering algorithm.Then,RIME is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the LightGBM and to establish the prediction model of DNI for different categories of historical meteorological data.The Euclidean distances between the hourly data of the forecast day and the strongly correlated meteorological parameters of each cluster center are used to select the corresponding prediction model for the prediction of the DNI.Finally,by using the historical meteorological data from 2000 to 2019 of a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant in California,USA,the proposed model is validated.The experimental results show that the proposed prediction model can accurately predict the value and variation trend of DNI.

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周灿,周育才,谭艳祥,等.基于聚类和RIME -LightGBM的光热电站太阳直接法向辐射预测[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,40(6):241-249.
ZHOU Can, ZHOU Yuca i, TAN Yanxiang, et al. Prediction of direct normal irradiance from photovoltaic power plants based on clustering and RIME -LightGBM[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,40(6):241-249.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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