基于现货市场的电力交易服务费违约风险评估模型
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作者:
作者单位:

(1.广东电力交易中心有限责任公司 ,广东 广州 510030;2.香港中文大学 (深圳) ,广东 深圳 518116)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

王馨蕾(1996—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事电力市场方面的研究;E-mail:741770083@qq.com

中图分类号:

F426.61

基金项目:

南方电网公司科技项目(GDKJXM20200208)


Default risk prediction model of power trading service fees in spot market
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Guangdong Power Exchange Center Co .,Ltd., Guangzhou 510030, China; 2.The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen ) , Shenzhen 518116, China)

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    摘要:

    随着中国电力市场改革的不断深化,电力交易平台将面临更多类型的市场用户、更复杂的交易品种以及更高频的交易活动。作为核心交易中介,电力交易机构在承担大量运营和管理成本的同时,也面临日益增加的交易信用风险,即市场交易主体能否按时履约。此类信用风险存在于交易账户,并与市场波动和用户财务状况密切相关。梳理国际金融领域的传统信用风险度量模型,并基于某省电力市场仿真结果,结合混合信用评分模型,量化分析在完全现货市场条件下电力交易机构可能面临的服务费缴纳情况,研究视角是电力交易机构的服务费回收风险。仿真结果表明,交易电量规模特别大的用户违约对机构成本回收影响显著,在压力测试情景下 (如两家特大规模用户同时违约 )可能造成较大成本缺口。因此,须在未来建立更完善的保障机制,以应对潜在的大型用户违约风险。

    Abstract:

    With the further reform of the electricity market in China,electricity trading platforms are confronted with more types of market participants,more categories of trading services,and higher trading frequencies.As the core trading intermediary,power trading institutions bear a great number of operating and management costs and face an increasing trading credit risk,namely the risk that market participants may fail to fulfill their contractual obligations on time.The credit risk resides in trading accounts and is closely related to market fluctuations and the financial status of market users.This paper introduces the traditional credit risk measurement model in the international finance field.Based on the electricity market simulation results of a province,the paper utilizes hybrid credit scoring model to quantitatively analyze the default risks that power trading institutions may face in the spot market.The research focuses on the risk of service fee recovery for electricity trading institutions.The simulation results show that default by trading users with exceptionally large trading volumes significantly impacts institutions ’ cost recovery.Under stress test scenarios,such as the simultaneous default of two users with exceptionally large trading volumes,a substantial cost shortfall could arise.Therefore,a more complete protection plan should be formulated to deal with the possible default of large users in the future.

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引用本文

杨威,施琦,曾智健,等.基于现货市场的电力交易服务费违约风险评估模型[J].电力科学与技术学报,2025,40(6):260-270.
YANG Wei, SHI Qi, ZENG Zhijian, et al. Default risk prediction model of power trading service fees in spot market[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2025,40(6):260-270.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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