基于RF -GSWOA -SVRM微气象区输电线路覆冰预测
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作者单位:

(1.国网宁夏电力有限公司经济技术研究院 ,宁夏 银川 750000;2.宁夏大学电子与电气工程学院 ,宁夏 银川 750000)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

刘兴杰(1979—),男,博士、副教授,主要从事新型电力系统安全研究;E-mail:1005963@126.com

中图分类号:

TM726

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金地区基金(12062023);2021年自治区重点研发计划社发领域项目(2021BEG03029);国网宁夏电力有限公司科技项目(5229JY240009)


Prediction of transmission line icing in micrometeorological areas based on RF -GSWOA -SVRM
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(1. Economic and Technical Research Institute , State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co ., Ltd., Yinchuan 750000, China; 2. School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering , Ningxia University , Yinchuan 750000, China)

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    摘要:

    微气象区输电线路更易产生覆冰,这对电网系统的安全运行具有极大的破坏性。针对微气象区覆冰监测数据较少、干扰较大的特点,提出了一种基于随机森林 (random forest,RF)算法、全局搜索鲸鱼优化算法 (global search whale optimization algorithm,GSWOA )、支持向量回归机 (support vector regression machine,SVRM)算法的微气象区输电线路覆冰预测方法 RF-GSWOA-SVRM,以提高覆冰预测精度。首先,采用 RF算法提取输电线路覆冰和微气象数据的相关性,以减少某一气象因素的过拟合现象和多个气象因素的叠加作用;其次,针对 SVRM算法对核函数选择和惩罚因子设置较为敏感这一问题,对传统鲸鱼算法进行优化,得到了 GSWOA,以避免核函数与惩罚因子陷入局部最优解;再次,通过 GSWOA 对SVRM算法的两个参数进行优化处理,建立 RF-GSWOA-SVRM的短期覆冰预测模型;最后,以河南电网某微气象区输电线路在线监测数据为例,进行对比分析以验证该方法的有效性。将该模型应用于某地类似微气象区的输电线路覆冰预测,获得了较高的预测精度,说明该模型具有一定的普适性。

    Abstract:

    The transmission lines in the micrometeorological area are more prone to icing,so it is extremely destructive to the safe operation of the power grid system.In view of the characteristics that icing monitoring data in micrometeorological areas is scarce,and interference is strong,RF-GSWOA-SVRM,a prediction method for transmission line icing in micrometeorological areas based on random forest (RF),global search whale optimization algorithm (GSWOA ),and support vector regression machine (SVRM),is proposed to improve the accuracy of icing prediction.Firstly,the RF algorithm is used to extract the correlation between transmission line icing and micrometeorological data,thereby reducing the overfitting phenomenon caused by a single meteorological factor and the superposition effect of multiple meteorological factors.Then,to address the issue that the SVRM algorithm is highly sensitive to the selection of the kernel function and the setting of the penalty factor,the traditional whale algorithm is optimized to obtain GSWOA,thereby avoiding the kernel function and penalty factor from falling into local optimal solutions.Furthermore,the two parameters of the SVRM algorithm are optimized via GSWOA,and a short-term icing prediction model based on RF-GSWOA-SVRM is established.Finally,by taking the online monitoring data of transmission lines in a single micrometeorological area of Henan power grid as an example,a comparative analysis is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.This model is applied to the transmission line icing prediction in similar micrometeorological areas of a certain region,and high prediction accuracy is achieved,demonstrating that the model has certain general applicability.

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引用本文

张维,刘兴杰,黄瑞,等.基于RF -GSWOA -SVRM微气象区输电线路覆冰预测[J].电力科学与技术学报,2026,41(1):36-45.
ZHANG Wei, LIU Xingjie, HUANG Rui, et al. Prediction of transmission line icing in micrometeorological areas based on RF -GSWOA -SVRM[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2026,41(1):36-45.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-11
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