基于Multiformer -TSA的光伏发电功率预测方法
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

(1.南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 ,广东 广州 510530;2.广东省电网智能量测与先进计量企业重点实验室 ,广东 广州 510530;3.贵州电网有限责任 公司电力科学研究院 ,贵州 贵阳 550002)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

蔡梓文(1991—),男,硕士,工程师,主要从事新型电力系统绿色低碳用能等研究;E-mail:caizw@csg.cn

中图分类号:

TM73;TK01

基金项目:

南方电网重点科技项目(GZKJXM20222127,GZKJXM20222133)


Multiformer -TSA -based photovoltaic power forecasting method
Author:
Affiliation:

(1. CSG Electric Power Research Institute Co ., Ltd., Guangzhou 510530, China; 2. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Measurement and Advanced Metering of Power Grid , Guangzhou 510530, China; 3. Electric Power Research Institute , Guizhou Power G rid Co ., Ltd., Guiyang 550002, China)

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    针对当前光伏发电功率预测方法高度依赖 气象监测与分类技术,无法实现大规模复杂数据下光伏发电全天候准确预测的问题,构建了基于两阶段注意力机制 (two-stage attention,TSA)的Multiformer-TSA 方法来预测光伏发电功率。首先,构建跨尺度嵌入层,生成分阶段采样标记,采集不同尺度光伏序列,获取跨尺度特征;然后,将多变量时间序列不同维度的点分段嵌入,组成新的特征向量,捕捉跨维度依赖性;最后,通过 TSA将跨尺度与跨维度依赖信息融合,以实现准确的光伏发电全天候预测。利用澳大利亚爱丽斯泉的光伏发电公开数据集开展多尺度预测对比实验与消融实验,实验结果表明,所提方法能准确地捕捉多维时间序列的跨尺度与跨维度特征,提高光伏发电功率多尺度预测精度。与现有方法相比,预测结果的均方根误差和平均绝对误差指标皆表现最佳。

    Abstract:

    To address the limitations of current photo voltaic power forecasting methods,which rely heavily on meteorological monitoring and classification techniques and are unable to achieve accurate all-weather forecasting under large-scale complex data,a Multiformer-TSA method based on a two-stage attention (TSA) mechanism is proposed for photovoltaic power forecasting.First,a cross-scale embedding layer is constructed to generate staged sampling tokens and collect photovoltaic sequences at different scales,thus extracting cross-scale features.Then,point-based segments of different dimensions in multivariate time series are embedded to form new feature vectors,capturing cross-dimensional dependencies.Finally,cross-scale and cross-dimensional dependency information is fused through the TSA mechanism to achieve accurate all- weather photovoltaic power forecasting.Multi-scale forecasting comparison experiments and ablation experiments are conducted on a publicly available photovoltaic power dataset from Alice Springs,Australia.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method accurately captures cross-scale and cross-dimensional features of multivariate time series and improves the multi-scale forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic power generation.Compared with existing methods,the proposed method achieves the best performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE).

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

蔡梓文,谈竹奎,赵云,等.基于Multiformer -TSA的光伏发电功率预测方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2026,41(1):130-139.
CAI Ziwen, TAN Zhukui, ZHAO Yun, et al. Multiformer -TSA -based photovoltaic power forecasting method[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2026,41(1):130-139.

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-04
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-11
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码