基于Neural ODE -CGE模型的高耗能行业对碳排放及碳市场的影响评估方法
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(1.国网山西省电力公司 ,山西 太原 030000;2.国网山西省电力公司电力科学研究院 ,山西 太原 030000;3.山西新兴电力市场研究院 ,山西 太原 030000)

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通讯作者:

程雪婷(1991—),女,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事电网运行控制、低碳分析研究;E-mail:cheng_xueting@163.com

中图分类号:

TM731

基金项目:

国网山西省电力公司科技项目(52053023001M)


Evaluation of impact of high -energy -consuming industries on carbon emissions and carbon market based on Neural ODE -CGE model
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(1.State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company , Taiyuan 030000, China; 2.Electric Power Research Institute , State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company , Taiyuan 030000, China; 3.Shanxi Xinxing Electric Power Market Research Institute , Taiyuan 030000, China)

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    摘要:

    高耗能行业是中国碳排放的主要来源,降低高耗能行业的碳排放量是当前碳减排工作的紧要任务。目前,高耗能行业缺乏有力的碳排放约束机制,其减排的动力明显不足。为解决这一问题,提出了一种结合神经网络差分方程(neural ordinary differential equations,Neural ODE )和可计算一般均衡 (computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型的仿真方法,设计了基准情景和 3个减排情景,以2022年国家与某省的投入产出数据为依据,评估高耗能行业参与碳交易对省域碳排放和碳市场的影响。研究表明,相比于不额外增加其他政策的情况,高耗能行业参与碳市场交易会有效降低能源消耗量和碳排放总量,提高碳市场交易总量与交易价格,并促使该省在 2028年实现碳达峰。

    Abstract:

    High-energy-consuming industries represent the primary source of carbon emissions in China,which makes the reduction of their carbon emissions a critical priority for the country ’s carbon emission reduction efforts.However,due to the lack of robust carbon emission constraint mechanisms targeting these industries,their motivation for emission reduction remains significantly insufficient.To address this issue,this paper proposes a simulation method that integrates neural ordinary differential equations (Neural ODE ) with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.Using input-output data from 2022 at the national and provincial levels,this method constructs a baseline scenario and three emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of high-energy-consuming industries participating in carbon trading on provincial carbon emissions and carbon market.The results indicate that,compared to the absence of additional policies,the inclusion of high-energy-consuming industries in carbon market trading effectively reduces energy consumption and total carbon emissions,increases total carbon market trading volume and prices,and facilitates the province ’s achievement of carbon peaking by 2028.

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霍成军,程雪婷,刘晋魁,等.基于Neural ODE -CGE模型的高耗能行业对碳排放及碳市场的影响评估方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2026,41(1):233-242.
HUO Chengjun, CHENG Xueting, LIU Jinkui, et al. Evaluation of impact of high -energy -consuming industries on carbon emissions and carbon market based on Neural ODE -CGE model[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2026,41(1):233-242.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-11
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