基于WGAN -GP的综合能源系统源荷极端场景生成方法研究
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(1.中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院 ,北京 100083;2.斯坦陵布什大学工程学院 ,南非 斯坦陵布什 7602)

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通讯作者:

杨德昌(1983—),博士,教授,主要从事电力系统运行优化、综合能源系统运行等方面的研究;E-mail:yangdechang@cau.edu.cn

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TM73

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52377127);国家自然科学基金智能电网联合基金(U2166208)


Source -load extreme scenario generation method for integrated energy systems based on WGAN -GP
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(1. College of Information and Electrical Engineering , China Agricultural University , Beijing 100083, China; 2. Faculty of Engineering , Stellenbosch University , Stellenbosch 7602, South Africa )

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    摘要:

    为提升极端天气下综合能源系统 (integrated energy systems,IES)的运行安全性,须在生产调度中充分考虑极端场景的影响。然而,极端场景历史样本稀缺,IES在运行场景建模与调度方面面临挑战,因此研究有效的极端场景生成方法具有重要意义。为此,提出一种基于 Wasserstein 距离的生成对抗网络 ?梯度惩罚 (Wasserstein generative adversarial network-gradient penalty,WGAN-GP )的IES源荷极端场景生成方法。首先,该方法通过引入Wasserstein 距离及梯度惩罚,增强了模型训练的稳定性与生成样本的多样性,并对原始场景进行了扩充。其次,设计了一种源荷两阶段筛选策略,依据标准差倍数设定阈值,分别从可再生能源出力与多元负荷数据中识别分布极端的数据样本,进而构建源荷极端场景。算例结果表明,所提方法生成的场景集在概率分布、时序特性及负荷相关性方面均与历史数据高度一致,且生成的场景具备良好的多样性。最后,成功筛选出两类典型极端场景,验证了所提方法的有效性。

    Abstract:

    To enhance the operational security of integrated energy systems (IES) under extreme weather conditions,it is essential to fully consider the impact of extreme scenarios in production scheduling.However,because historical samples of extreme scenarios are scarce,IES face challenges in operational scenario modeling and scheduling,making effective methods for generating extreme scenarios highly significant.To address this issue,a method based on a Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP ) was proposed for generating source-load extreme scenarios in IES.By introducing the Wasserstein distance and gradient penalty,the proposed method improves model training stability,increases the diversity of generated samples,and expands the original scenarios.Subsequently,a two-stage source-load screening strategy was designed.Thresholds were set based on multiples of the standard deviation to identify samples located at the extremes of the distributions of renewable energy output and multi-energy load data,respectively,thus constructing source-load extreme scenarios.Case study results show that the scenario set generated by the proposed method is highly consistent with historical data in terms of probability distribution,temporal characteristics,and load correlation,while also exhibiting good diversity.Finally,two typical types of extreme scenarios,were identified,validating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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钟政星,邢通,熊超煜,等.基于WGAN -GP的综合能源系统源荷极端场景生成方法研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2026,41(3):222-235.
Zhong Zhengxing, Xing Tong, Xiong Chaoyu, et al. Source -load extreme scenario generation method for integrated energy systems based on WGAN -GP[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2026,41(3):222-235.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-02
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