Shortterm load forecasting based on the Kfold crossvalidation and stacking ensemble
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    Abstract:

    Shortterm load forecasting is of great significance for the economic dispatching and operation of power systems. In order to improve the accuracy of shortterm load forecasting, a shortterm load forecasting method based on kfold cross validation and Stacking ensemble is proposed. Firstly, the Pearson coefficient method is utilized to screen multiple features affecting shortterm load, and redundant features are eliminated. Secondly, the kfold validation crossvalidation method is applied to train the submodels of the first level, and the prediction results of each submodel are taken as new features to train the second level model. Thirdly, the results of the submodel are stacked, and the shortterm load forecasting results obtained by the second layer model. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by the actual data set from New England. The simulation results show that the proposed kfold crossvalidation method can effectively improve the generalization ability of the model. Stacking fusion can not only improve the average accuracy of prediction, but also reduce the maximum prediction error, which is more advantageous than single model prediction.

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朱文广,李映雪,杨为群,刘小春,熊宁,周成,王丽.基于K折交叉验证和Stacking融合的短期负荷预测[J].电力科学与技术学报英文版,2021,36(1):87-95. ZHU Wenguang, LI Yingxue, YANG Weiqun, LIU Xiaochun, XIONG Ning, ZHOU Cheng, WANG Li. Shortterm load forecasting based on the Kfold crossvalidation and stacking ensemble[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2021,36(1):87-95.

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  • Received:
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  • Online: April 16,2021
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