A short‑term electricity price forecasting method based on improved VMD‑PSO‑CNN‑LSTM
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(1.Nanyang Power Supply Company,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Nanyang 473000,China; 2.Hubei Intelligent Cloud Network Dispatching and Operation Center,China Telecom,Wuhan 430022,China; 3.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072,China)

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TM732

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    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy of electricity price forecasting and the stability of forecasting models, a short-term electricity price forecasting method based on improved VMD-PSO-CNN-LSTM is proposed. Firstly, after studying the correlation between variational mode decomposition(VMD) and the influencing factors of electricity prices, and introducing the maximum information coefficient, a parameter optimization model for VMD is constructed. Secondly, convolutional neural networks(CNN) and long short-term memory(LSTM) neural networks are used to predict the modal components obtained by VMD decomposition. As for the convolution in CNN, a extraction structure with multi-scale convolution feature is constructed, on the basis of the depth-wise separable convolution combined with the time law of electricity prices. Particle swarm optimization algorithm is then used to optimize parameters including the number of CNN convolutional layers, the number of CNN convolutional neurons, the number of LSTM hidden layers, LSTM memory time, and the number of fully connected layers, so as to improve the prediction accuracy and stability of the model. Finally, the analysis and prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices in the Australian electricity market are carried out and compared with the algorithm. The results show that the proposed algorithm has higher accuracy and better stability.

    Reference
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郭雪丽,华大鹏,包鹏宇,李婷婷,姚 楠,曹 艳,王 莹,张天东,胡 钋.一种基于改进VMD‑PSO‑CNN‑LSTM的短期电价预测方法[J].电力科学与技术学报英文版,2024,39(2):35-43. GUO Xueli, HUA Dapeng, BAO Pengyu, LI Tingting, YAO Nan, CAO Yan, WANG Ying, ZHANG Tiandong, HU Po. A short‑term electricity price forecasting method based on improved VMD‑PSO‑CNN‑LSTM[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2024,39(2):35-43.

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