Short‑term prediction method of distributed PV output power based on K‑I‑ELM multi‑model integration
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(1. Economic & Technical Research Institute,State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd.,Changsha 410004, China; 2.Hunan Key Laboratory of Energy Internet Supply‑demand and Operation, Changsha 410004, China;3.School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

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TM615

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    Abstract:

    In response to the "dual carbon" strategy, a new type of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy access has become the next development goal. As one of the main forms of current energy generation, photovoltaic (PV) power generation has characteristics such as multi-source, heterogeneous, and high-dimensional data distribution, which makes the mechanisms and effects of different features relatively complex and subsequently increases the difficulty of predicting the output of distributed PV systems. To address this, multiple categories of data mining models are integrated to construct an K-I-ELM prediction method for short-term PV output prediction in complex data environments. First, a kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) model is constructed to extract principal components based on the effective information contained in different features in the feature space through a kernel function. An information entropy (IE) model is employed to measure the weighting coefficients based on the information load of each principal component and comprehensively solve the corresponding effect weights. Finally, based on the feature evaluation results, the network parameters of the extreme learning machine (ELM) are set specifically to reduce prediction uncertainty. A case study based on actual PV power generation data from a certain substation demonstrates the adaptability and high prediction accuracy of the proposed method in different data environments.

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江卓翰,周胜瑜,何禹清,周任军,孙辰昊.基于K‑I‑ELM多模型集成的分布式光伏出力短期预测方法[J].电力科学与技术学报英文版,2024,39(4):146-152. JIANG Zhuohan, ZHOU Shengyu, HE Yuqing, ZHOU Renjun, SUN Chenhao. Short‑term prediction method of distributed PV output power based on K‑I‑ELM multi‑model integration[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2024,39(4):146-152.

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  • Online: September 10,2024
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