基于多典型场景采样的微网可靠性计算方法
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1.国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司经济技术研究院;2.华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院

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自治微电网柔性规划建模研究,国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Reliability calculation method of microgrid based on multi typical scene sampling
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1.State Grid Inner Mongolia Eastern Electric Power Co,Ltd Economic and Technical Research Institute,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;2.School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University

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    摘要:

    随着微电网系统在海岛区域的广泛应用,微电网系统的可靠性评估难度也有所提升。首先采用k-means聚类算法对电网运行大数据进行典型场景的提取,将体现时间关联性的“出力-负荷”作为提取特征量进行处理;其次,提出了基于场景概率分布的拉丁超立方抽样方法,使得采样频率与场景出现概率一致;最后,根据各场景中各元件的状态时间序列进行抽样并计算各场景的可靠性指标,再利用全概率公式得出微电网综合可靠性指标。采用某微电网系统进行算例分析,结果表明本文所提模型方法能够快速准确地进行微电网可靠性评估。

    Abstract:

    With the wide application of microgrid system in island area, the reliability evaluation of microgrid system becomes more complex and different. Firstly, K-means clustering algorithm is available for collecting typical scenes of microgrid operation with big data, and the “supply-load” which reflects the time correlation is treated as the extracted feature quantity. Secondly, Latin hypercube sampling method which put with scene probability distribution is proposed, and in this process the sampling frequency is identical to the scene occurrence probability. Finally, according to the state time series of each cell in each scenario, the reliability index of each scenario is computed. Then the multiple reliability index of microgrid can be obtained by using the full probability formula. A microgrid example is used to be analyzed, and its results make clear that this modified model method proposed can quickly and correctly evaluate the reliability of the microgrid.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-04-26
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-07
  • 录用日期:2021-05-19
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