2025年4月1日 周二
首页 > 过刊浏览>2024年第39卷第6期 >33-42. DOI:10.19781/j.issn.1673-9140.2024.06.004
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考虑天然来水量预报的小水电站富集型系统汛期优化调度策略
作者:
作者单位:

(1.国网浙江省电力有限公司丽水供电公司，浙江 丽水 323000;2.杭州沃瑞电力科技有限公司，浙江 杭州 310012)

通讯作者:

林振智（1979—），男，博士，教授，主要从事电力系统规划与运行、电力大数据挖掘等研究；E?mail：275732950@qq.com

中图分类号:

TM61;TM73

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(U2166206)；国家电网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211LS22001J)


Optimal scheduling strategy for small hydropower enrichment system during flood season based on natural runoff forecast
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Lishui Power Supply Company，State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.，Ltd., Lishui 323000, China; 2.Hangzhou WoRui Electric Power Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310012, China)

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    摘要:

    有效利用天然来水量预报信息可提高水电站汛期库容上限，在保证防洪安全的前提下充分利用水电资源，提升电网经济性。针对含高比例小水电的电力系统，提出一种综合考虑流域水电站群汛期预期来水量和弹性库容上限的优化调度策略。首先，提出基于最大信息系数(maximal information coefficient, MIC)的气象?水文预报因子筛选方法并构建基于注意力机制的Informer天然来水量预报模型；其次，考虑预报信息的准确性和水电站的预泄能力，提出基于机会约束优化的水电站弹性库容上限的确定方法，将其用于挖掘汛期水电站库容资源；最后，以浙江省丽水市某流域小水电站群为例进行算例分析，结果表明所提模型具有精确的预报效果，可以提高小水电站库容资源的利用效率，减少系统运行成本。

    Abstract:

    Effective use of natural runoff forecast information can increase the upper limit of storage capacity of hydropower stations during flood season, make full use of hydropower resources under the premise of ensuring flood control safety, and improve the economy of power grids. For the power system with a high proportion of small hydropower resources, an optimal scheduling strategy is proposed, which takes into account the expected runoff and the upper limit of elastic storage capacity of hydropower stations within the basin during flood season. Firstly, a screening method of meteorological and hydrological forecast factors is proposed based on the maximal information coefficient (MIC), and an Informer natural runoff forecast model based on the attention mechanism is constructed. Secondly, by considering the accuracy of forecast information and the pre-discharge capacity of hydropower stations, a method of determining the upper limit of elastic storage capacity of hydropower stations based on chance-constrained optimization is proposed to excavate storage resources of hydropower stations during flood season. Finally, a case study of a small hydropower station group in Lishui, Zhejiang Province is carried out. The results show that the proposed model has an accurate forecast effect, which can improve the utilization efficiency of storage resources of small hydropower stations and reduce the system operation cost.

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引用本文

杜倩昀,周 升,李祖鑫,等.考虑天然来水量预报的小水电站富集型系统汛期优化调度策略[J].电力科学与技术学报,2024,39(6):33-42.
DU Qianyun, ZHOU Sheng, LI Zuxin, et al. Optimal scheduling strategy for small hydropower enrichment system during flood season based on natural runoff forecast[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2024,39(6):33-42.

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