清洁能源发展场景下电动汽车入网对区域碳排放的系统动力学建模与分析
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TM863

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国家电网公司科技项目(1400-202157215A-0-0-00)


System dynamics modeling and analysis of regional carbon emission by electric vehicles development under the evolution of clean energy development
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    摘要:

    在“碳达峰、碳中和”发展背景下,电动汽车的推广为实现双碳目标提供有力的支撑。为研究电动汽车对碳排放的影响,首先分析电动汽车规模、区域能源构成及车网互动技术与碳排放之间的耦合关系;然后根据清洁能源发展规律构建区域清洁能源发展路径;最后基于系统动力学原理建立考虑清洁化能源变化下,电动汽车入网对区域碳排放演化的动力学反馈模型。最后,以中国西南某城市的数据为例进行动力学演化仿真,其中以电动汽车的发展规模及清洁能源的发展路径为主要变量,分析多种场景下电动汽车入网对区域碳排放的影响。此外,还通过灵敏度试验验证电动汽车入网具有一定的碳减排效益。上述仿真结果表明,清洁能源的发展对碳减排的影响最显著,且电动汽车车网互动技术具有巨大的碳减排潜力。

    Abstract:

    In the context of the development of carbon peak and carbon neutral, the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) provides a strong support for the realization of lowcarbon goals. For investigating the impact of EVs on the carbon emission, the paper firstly,analyzes the coupling relationship between the scale of EVs, regional energy composition, VehicletoGrid (V2G) technology and carbon emissions. Secondly, the district energy development path is constructed according to the development law of the clean energy. Finally, based on the principle of system dynamics, a dynamic feedback model of the evolution of the regional carbon emission trajectory with the integration of V2G under the development of the clean energy is established.Finally, the paper takes the data of a city in southwest China as an example to conduct dynamic evolution simulation, in which the development scale of EVs and the development path of the clean energy are taken as main variables to analyze the impact of EVs on regional carbon emissions under various scenarios. Besides, this paper also verifies the carbon emission reduction benefit of EVs through the sensitivity test. Simulation results indicate that the development of the clean energy has the most significant impact on the carbon emission reduction, and the V2G technology has huge benefits on the carbon emission reduction.

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周椿奇,向月,岑炳成,等.清洁能源发展场景下电动汽车入网对区域碳排放的系统动力学建模与分析[J].电力科学与技术学报,2021,36(3):36-45.
Zhou Chunqi, Xiang Yue, Cen Bingcheng, et al. System dynamics modeling and analysis of regional carbon emission by electric vehicles development under the evolution of clean energy development[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2021,36(3):36-45.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-08-26
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