基于多典型场景采样的微网可靠性计算方法
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TM73

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国家自然科学基金(51577058);国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司科技项目(KH20010229)


Reliability calculation method of microgrid based on multi typical scene sampling
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    摘要:

    随着微电网系统在海岛区域的广泛应用,微电网系统的可靠性评估难度也有所提升。基于此,提出了基于多典型场景采样的微网可靠性计算方法。首先采用k-means聚类算法对电网运行大数据进行典型场景提取,将体现时间关联性的“出力—负荷”作为提取特征量进行处理;其次,提出基于场景概率分布的拉丁超立方抽样方法,使得采样频率与场景出现概率一致;然后,根据各场景中各元件的状态时间序列进行抽样并计算各场景的可靠性指标,再利用全概率公式得出微电网综合可靠性指标。最后采用某微电网系统进行算例分析,结果表明所提模型方法能够快速准确地进行微电网可靠性评估。

    Abstract:

    With the wide application of microgrids in island area, the reliability evaluation of microgrid system becomes more complex and difficult. Firstly, k-means clustering algorithm is utilized for collecting typical scenes of microgrid operation with big data, and the "supply-load" characteristic which reflects the time correlation is used as the key feature. Secondly, a scenario probability distribution based Latin hypercube sampling method is proposed to ensure that the sampling frequency is identical to the scenario occurrence probability. Finally, according to the random sampling from the state time series of each component under different scenarios, the synthesis reliability index of each scenario can be computed by using the full probability formula. A microgrid benchmark is used to validate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method proposed can quickly and correctly evaluate the reliability of the microgrid.

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徐明忻,石勇,邢敬舒,等.基于多典型场景采样的微网可靠性计算方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2022,37(3):41-49.
XU Mingxin, SHI Yong, XING Jingshu, et al. Reliability calculation method of microgrid based on multi typical scene sampling[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2022,37(3):41-49.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-24
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