基于时变深度前馈神经网络的风电功率概率密度预测
作者:
作者单位:

(1.长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南 长沙 410114;2.浙江大学计算机科学与技术学院,浙江 杭州 310058;3.国网江西省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,江西 南昌 330006)

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通讯作者:

彭曙蓉(1975—),女,博士,副教授,主要从事智能电网中的信息处理研究;E?mail:1106131612@qq.com

中图分类号:

TM61

基金项目:

湖南省教育厅重点项目(20A021);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52177069)


Wind power probability density prediction based on time‑variant deep feed‑forward neural network
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(1.School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China; 2.College of Computer Science and Technology,Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058,China;3.Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Nanchang 330006,China)

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    摘要:

    针对传统循环神经网络(RNN)和卷积神经网络(CNN)模型对风电功率进行较长时间尺度的短期预测时出现的时不变性问题,应用时变深度前馈神经网络(ForecastNet)模型进行短期风电功率不确定性预测。该模型的网络结构随时间变化以提高多步提前预测能力,模型交错输出以缓解梯度消失问题,使用混合密度网络得到各个时刻的概率密度分布。在避免传统深度学习模型中,该模型能避免递归多步预测累积误差的同时可以充分考虑相邻时刻风电功率的相关性;在模型隐藏层中,使用美国PJM网上的风电功率实际数据,分别应用全连接网络、卷积网络以及基于注意力机制的卷积网络3种神经网络模型进行预测,每次预测未来12 h的风电功率,滚动预测得到未来500 h的风电功率区间和概率密度,实验仿真结果能够证明所提预测模型的有效性。

    Abstract:

    Traditional RNN and CNN models have the issue of the time?invariance problem when they are used to make short?term predictions of wind power on longer time scales. This paper proposed a short?term wind power uncertainty prediction method based on the time?variant deep feed?forward neural network architecture (ForecastNet) model. This method has a time?varying network structure to improve multi?step ahead prediction, and has an interlaced output capability to mitigate the gradient disappearance problem. The probability density distribution can be obtained by using mixture density network. This model not only avoids the cumulative error of recursive multi?step prediction in the traditional deep learning model, but also fully considers the correlation of wind power at adjacent moments. In the hidden layer of the model, the actual data of wind power from PJM network in the United States are used to test three kinds of neural network models, namely, fully connected network, convolutional network, convolutional network with attention mechanism. The wind power of the next 12 hours is predicted each time, and the range and probability density of wind power of the next 500 hours are obtained by rolling prediction. The results of the experimental simulations prove the effectiveness of the proposed prediction model.

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彭曙蓉,彭家宜,杨云皓,等.基于时变深度前馈神经网络的风电功率概率密度预测[J].电力科学与技术学报,2023,38(3):84-93.
PENG Shurong, PENG Jiayi, YANG Yunhao, et al. Wind power probability density prediction based on time‑variant deep feed‑forward neural network[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2023,38(3):84-93.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-19
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