基于随机模糊的配电网故障停电风险评估方法
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

(长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南 长沙 410114)

通讯作者:

马 瑞(1971—),男,博士,教授,主要从事电力系统运行与控制研究;E?mail:marui818@126.com

中图分类号:

TM863

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(51977012)


A random fuzzy‑based risk assessment method for outages in distribution networks
Author:
Affiliation:

(School of Electrical & Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

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    摘要:

    针对配电网结构日趋复杂导致的故障原因多样性与随机不确定性问题,提出一种基于随机模糊的配电网故障停电风险评估方法。相对于传统的配电网故障停电风险评估,该方法从数据驱动的维度通过对参数模型的随机模糊化更真实客观地描述一定区域内的故障累计概率;并针对电力用户日益增长的供电可靠性期望,通过熵权法综合考虑停电事故的故障等级、停电时长、敏感用户数和影响用户数等因素,对配电网故障进行风险评估。结果表明,采用随机模糊理论计算的故障次数概率分布可实现对配电网故障问题更加科学和全面的分析;通过熵权法确定的风险评估指标权重可为制定合理有效的故障抢修策略提供支撑,可为敏感用户制定应对方案,提高电力用户归属度。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the problem of the diversity of fault causes and the random uncertainty caused by the increasingly complex distribution network structure, a random fuzzy?based distribution network failure risk assessment method is proposed. Compared with the traditional risk assessment of power outages in distribution networks, this method describes the cumulative probability of failures in a certain area from a data?driven dimension through random fuzzification of parameter models. In response to the increasing power supply reliability expectations of power users, the entropy weight method is used to comprehensively consider factors such as the fault level of the power outage accident, the length of the power outage, the number of sensitive users and the number of affected users, and conduct risk assessment of the distribution network failure. The results show that the probability distribution of the number of failures calculated by using the random fuzzy theory can realize a more scientific and comprehensive analysis of the distribution network failures. The weight value of the risk assessment index determined by the entropy weight method can provide support for formulating reasonable and effective fault repair strategies, formulate response plans for sensitive users and increase the degree of power user ownership.

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马晓光,马 瑞.基于随机模糊的配电网故障停电风险评估方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2023,38(6):123-131.
MA Xiaoguang, MA Rui. A random fuzzy‑based risk assessment method for outages in distribution networks[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2023,38(6):123-131.

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