输电线路气象风险精细化建模及气象灾害的在线预警防御策略
作者:
作者单位:

(1.国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,河南 郑州 450052;2.南京工程学院电力工程学院,江苏 南京 211167)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

卢 明(1975—),男,硕士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事输电运行、电网防灾减灾以及电力气象的研究;E?mail:308215343@qq.com

中图分类号:

TM863

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(51877101);国网河南省电力公司科技项目(52170223000Y)


Refined meteorological risk modeling of transmission lines and online warning and defense strategies of meteorological disasters
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Electric Power Research Institute,State Gard Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450052,China;2.School of Electric Power Engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China)

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    摘要:

    气象因素在输电线路稳定运行中起着重要作用,在评估风险时应予以考虑。为此,提出一种输电线路气象风险预警及防护方法。该方法考虑时空发电预测、设备健康和可靠性评估以及概率负荷预测等方面对气象风险进行精细化建模,并基于气象危害、电网脆弱性和灾后恢复成本提出一种新的风险度量标准。此外,针对负荷中断恢复以及缓解用电拥堵,提出一种气象灾害的在线预警防御策略。最后,在案例中对所提出的方法和策略进行测试分析,其结果可以验证方法和策略的有效性。

    Abstract:

    Meteorological factors play an important role in the stable operation of transmission lines, which should be considered in risk assessment. This paper presents a method of transmission line meteorological risk early warning and protection. Considering the temporal and spatial power generation forecasting, equipment health and reliability assessment, probabilistic load forecasting and other aspects, a refined meteorological risk model is established, and a new risk measurement standard is proposed based on Meteorological hazards, grid vulnerability and post disaster recovery cost. In addition, aiming at the restoration of load interruption and the alleviation of power congestion, the online warning and defense strategy of meteorological disasters is proposed. Finally, the proposed method is tested and analyzed in the simulation to verify the effectiveness of the method.

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卢 明,郭志明,孟高军,等.输电线路气象风险精细化建模及气象灾害的在线预警防御策略[J].电力科学与技术学报,2024,(1):208-217.
LU Ming, GUO Zhiming, MENG Gaojun, et al. Refined meteorological risk modeling of transmission lines and online warning and defense strategies of meteorological disasters[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2024,(1):208-217.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-22
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