电动汽车充电站投资策略分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.云南电网有限责任公司,云南 昆明 650000;2.南京特殊教育师范学院,江苏 南京 2100382;3.长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南 长沙 410114)

通讯作者:

曹 璇(1985—),女,副教授,研究员,主要从事充电桩投资方面的研究;E?mail:903249860@qq.com

中图分类号:

TM73

基金项目:

南方电网公司2023年第一批软课题项目研究计划(YNRKT2023001);国家自然科学基金(72171027)


Analysis of investment strategies for electric vehicle charging stations
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Yunan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650000, China; 2.Nanjing Normal University of Special Education, Nanjing 2100382, China;3. School of Economics & Management, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

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    摘要:

    电动汽车数量的递增给公共充电站投资带来机遇,但竞争和电价波动等不确定因素增加了充电站投资项目的风险。针对单位充电量边际贡献和充电桩使用率随机波动的情况,构建实物期权模型,并通过求解模型,得到期望投资价值最大条件下的充电桩投资阈值;运用投资阈值条件,讨论充电服务费随机波动和储能配套两种情况下的投资策略。研究结果表明:外部环境的不确定性会显著延迟充电桩投资,政策上保证投资环境的相对稳定尤为重要;充电桩投资等待时间不仅由外部环境不确定性决定,也与初始收益有关,确保充电桩最低收益是激励投资的有效方式;储能配套投资是否占优,与增加的投资额和单位电量边际贡献有关,即在储能投资占比较小的情况下,提高储能投资可能有利于促进充电桩投资。

    Abstract:

    The increasing number of electric vehicles presents opportunities for investment in public charging stations, but uncertainties such as competition and electricity price fluctuations elevate the risks associated with these investment projects. Considering the random fluctuations in the marginal contribution per unit of charging and the utilization rate of charging stations, a real options model is constructed. By solving this model, the investment threshold for charging stations under the condition of maximizing expected investment value is obtained. Using this investment threshold condition, investment strategies are discussed in two scenarios: random fluctuations in charging service fees and the integration of energy storage systems. The research findings indicate that: 1) Uncertainty in the external environment significantly delays investment in charging stations, highlighting the importance of policies to ensure relative stability in the investment environment; 2) The waiting time for charging station investment is determined not only by external environmental uncertainty but also by initial returns, suggesting that ensuring a minimum return for charging stations is an effective way to incentivize investment; 3) Whether energy storage investment is advantageous depends on the additional investment amount and the marginal contribution per unit of electricity. Specifically, when the proportion of energy storage investment is relatively small, increasing such investment may help promote investment in charging stations.

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张洪程,颜 冰,伞晨峻,等.电动汽车充电站投资策略分析[J].电力科学与技术学报,2024,39(5):262-269.
ZHANG Hongcheng, YAN Bing, SAN Chenjun, et al. Analysis of investment strategies for electric vehicle charging stations[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2024,39(5):262-269.

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