变电站静态防汛能力模糊综合评估
作者:
作者单位:

(1.国网河南省电力公司,河南 郑州 450003;2.国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,河南 郑州 450052)

通讯作者:

王晓辉(1977—),男,高级工程师,主要从事气象灾害环境下电网防汛风险预测预警技术研究;E?mail:123875689@qq.com

中图分类号:

TM715

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52177110);国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院科技项目(52170222000G)


Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of static flood control capability of substation
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 2.Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China)

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    摘要:

    变电站是电网输送电力的重要枢纽,其防汛能力评估对于完善电网汛情预警系统至关重要。然而,变电站静态防汛影响因素繁多,其评估过程存在强烈的主观性和模糊性,给静态评估带来了困难。为解决这一问题,本文首先构建了变电站静态防汛能力评估指标体系,然后提出了一种基于组合赋权的变电站静态防汛能力模糊综合评估算法。该算法采用博弈论融合层次分析法和熵权法对评估指标进行组合赋权,最终利用模糊综合评价法得出评估结果。实验结果表明,博弈论组合赋权方法能够很好地平衡层次分析法的主观分析和熵权法的客观分析,计算结果与洪涝灾害致灾机理一致,所提模糊综合评估方法合理有效,结论置信度高,可为实际变电站汛情预警工作提供参考和决策辅助。

    Abstract:

    Substations are important hubs for transmitting electricity in power grids, and the assessment of their flood control capabilities is crucial for improving flood warning systems of power grids. However, factors affecting the static flood control of substations are complex, and the assessment process is highly subjective and fuzzy, which poses difficulties for static evaluation. To solve this problem, a static flood control capability evaluation index system of substations is constructed, and then a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm for the static flood control capability of substations based on combination weighting is proposed. The algorithm uses game theory to combine the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to weigh the evaluation indicators and finally adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to obtain the evaluation results. The experimental results show that the game theory-based combination weighting method can balance the subjective analysis of the analytic hierarchy process and the objective analysis of the entropy weight method well, and the calculation results are consistent with the flood disaster causation mechanism. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this paper is reasonable and effective, with high confidence in the conclusions, and it can provide reference and decision-making assistance for actual flood warnings of substations.

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王晓辉,夏中原,兰光宇,等.变电站静态防汛能力模糊综合评估[J].电力科学与技术学报,2024,39(6):60-68.
WANG Xiaohui, XIA Zhongyuan, LAN Guangyu, et al. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of static flood control capability of substation[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2024,39(6):60-68.

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